Film Study: Banchero’s rise can lift Magic, too

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The Orlando Magic were one of the league’s most improved teams last season, having made a much bigger climb on defense than they did on offense.
Orlando Magic record and efficiency, last two seasons
OffRtg = Points scored per 100 possessions
DefRtg = Points allowed per 100 possessions
NetRtg = Point differential per 100 possessions
With the league average rising by 0.5 points scored per 100 possessions, the Magic’s improvement (vs. the league average) was about three times bigger on defense (3.3 per 100) than on offense (1.1).
The offensive jump wasn’t insignificant, and with how young the Magic’s core is, continued improvement is likely. This team still has a long way to go on offense — Orlando has ranked in the bottom 10 offensively in 12 straight seasons, a remarkable streak of futility.
Continued improvement can begin with with Paolo Banchero, who led the Magic in usage rate by a wide margin in the playoffs.
In Year 1, Banchero was the Kia Rookie of the Year. In Year 2, he was an All-Star. Here are some numbers and film on the next steps.
1. Isolating often, but not shooting well off the dribble
According to Second Spectrum tracking, Banchero ranked fourth in the league with 15.8 isolations per 100 possessions last season. The Magic scored 1.00 points per possession when a Banchero iso led directly to a shot, turnover or trip to the line.
That rate ranked in the middle of the pack (53rd) among 101 players with at least 100 direct isolations, well behind the other four guys in the top five in isos per 100 possessions.
Most isolations per 100 possessions, 2023-24
Per 100 = Per 100 possessions
Direct = Isolations that led directly to a shot, turnover or trip to the line by player or teammate he passed to.
PPD = Team’s points per direct isolation.
Rank = Among 101 players with at least 100 direct isolations.
Via Second Spectrum tracking
Regarding volume, Banchero is in the company of Kia MVP candidates. It certainly helps to have a guy of his size who can put the ball on the floor and create a decent shot late in the clock …

But Banchero has not been a great shooter off the dribble. Among 56 players who attempted at least 300 pull-up jumpers last season, he ranked 41st in field goal percentage (38.2%) and 50th in effective field goal percentage (47%).
According to Synergy play-type tracking, he scored just 0.83 points per possession as a pick-and-roll ball-handler, a rate lower than his 0.85 as a rookie and ranked 96th among 123 players with at least 100 ball-handler possessions.
Banchero’s shot diet is probably a little too mid-range heavy. Among 213 players with at least 200 field goal attempts from outside the paint last season, he ranked 203rd in the ratio of 3-point attempts to mid-range attempts (1.04/1).
Until his jumper is a little more refined, he doesn’t need to take tough, pull-up 2s with plenty of time left on the shot clock …

2. Working off the ball
Though Banchero wasn’t bad in isolation, he and the Magic could benefit from more movement in their offense. Orlando was one of two teams — the LA Clippers were the other — that ranked in the bottom seven in both ball and player movement last season, finishing 24th in both.
Per Synergy, where Banchero showed the most improvement from his rookie season was off the ball. He went from 0.89 to 0.95 points per possession as a roll man and from 0.86 to 1.03 on spot-up possessions.
Playing off the ball allows Banchero to attack seams and shoot more off the catch. Setting screens are a good way to get mismatches …

Banchero was assisted on just 41.7% of his buckets last season, down from 45.7% as a rookie and the 24th-lowest rate among 303 players with at least 100 total field goals. He will remain the Magic’s primary ball-handler, but getting that rate closer to 50% by having him play a little more off the ball would likely help Orlando’s offense.
3. Making plays
As Orlando’s primary ball-handler (his 5.5 minutes per game of possession were 1.8 more than any teammate) Banchero needs to be a steady playmaker.
He certainly made strides last season, seeing big jumps in assists per game (from 3.7 to 5.4), assist ratio (from 14.7 to 18.5 per 100 possessions used) and assist/turnover ratio (from 1.35 to 1.74).
A lot of Banchero’s assists are simple, A-to-B passes. But he generally keeps his head up and sees the whole floor, allowing him to make more advanced and creative reads …

His size also allows him to operate out of the post and draw double-teams. He can even make some Draymond-Green-esque plays as a roll man …

Banchero, 21, is entering his third season. He’s still a year away from signing a rookie extension and two years away from when that extension kicks in. The Magic certainly don’t need to be in a rush concerning competing atop of the Eastern Conference.
But the former No. 1 pick could eventually be an MVP candidate himself. And if he can make a leap in Year 3, the Magic will finally climb out of the bottom 10 on offense and be a much tougher team to beat.
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John Schuhmann is a senior stats analyst for NBA.com. You can e-mail him here, find his archive here and follow him on X.
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